Kenneth S. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. He grew up in the oilfields; his father was
a pioneer petroleum engineer. At the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston, he was a colleague of M. King Hubbert.
He joined the Princeton faculty in 1967 and continued to participate in the petroleum industry as a consultant
and as an expert witness. General readers best know Deffeyes as the guide/mentor in John McPhee's series of popular
books on geology, collected and republished under the title Annals of the Former World.
Review
"Deffeyes has reached a conclusion with far-reaching consequences for the entire industrialized world.
. . . The conclusion is this: in somewhere between two and six years from now, worldwide oil production will peak.
After that, chronic shortages will become a way of life. The 100-year reign of King Oil will be over."
--Fred Guterl, Newsweek
"A most readable handbook. . . . If [Deffeyes] is right we have, at most, two or three years in which to prepare
for yet another price shock, and to accelerate our move away from oil as fuel. The strength of the book lies in
its solid background and well-explained basis for that single prediction."
--Stuart Young, Nature
"Deffeyes makes a persuasive case. . . . This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded
in cold mathematics. And it's frightening."
--Paul Raeburn, Scientific American
"An important new book."
--Robert Kuttner, Boston Globe
"The story behind Hubbert's analysis--is told with engaging wit, humor, and great insight. . . . Deffeyes
writes with the taut reasoning of a scientist and the passion of someone raised in the industry. . . . His background
is ideal for the subject, and the book is a gem. . . . Read Hubbert's Peak."
--Brian J. Skinner, American Scientist
"[Some] experts . . . worry that the global peak in production will come in the next decade. . . . A heavyweight
has now joined this gloomy chorus. Kenneth Deffeyes argues in a lively new book that global oil production could
peak as soon as 2004."
--The Economist
"A persuasive prophecy. Hubbert's story is important and needs to be told. I suspect that historians in years
to come will recognise Hubbert's Peak as a historical turning point."
--Tim Burnhill, New Scientist
Princeton University Press Web Site, September, 2003
Summary
Geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the
early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970.
In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes
uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we
can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources,
they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 Overview
Chapter 2 The Origin of Oil
Chapter 3 Oil Reservoirs and Oil Traps
Chapter 4 Finding It
Chapter 5 Drilling Methods
Chapter 6 Size and Discoverability of Oil Fields
Chapter 7 Hubbert Revisited
Chapter 8 Rate Plots
Chapter 9 The Future of Fossil Fuels
Chapter 10 Alternative Energy Sources
Chapter 11 A New Outlook
Notes
Index
